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thirdslip.com
Cricket, by the numbers
How good is your favourite one-day batsman?
The Batting Average (BA) is improved when a batsman remains not-out at the end of his team's innings; as a result the likelihood of such a boost to one's average is far greater for a middle-order bat like Michael Bevan than an opener like Adam Gilchrist.
In a game where the speed at which runs are scored is crucial, two identical scores made in contrasting styles are hardly comparable. A quick 40+ from a late order batsman on the slog is a plus, whereas a slow 40+ from a top-order batsman actually hurts the team's chances. However, this is not necessarily the case either. A team chasing a sub-200 total would be reasonably well served by the later innings too. The Strike Rate (SR), a measure of this critical difference, is not reflected in the batting averages.
A third measure - one that partially offsets the skew from not-outs - is Runs made per
Innings (RPI). This may be a fairer measure of a batsman's contribution than the average, but in a time-limited game, this measure is unfair to lower-order batsman who do not have the same opportunity to score runs as those batting higher.
In this column, we offer an integrated index (which we call the "Contributing Average") that balances the effects of individual measures, and may therefore present a more accurate measure of a batsman's worth. In Part I (this part, see link to Part II at the end of this page), the limitations of the existing measures are first discussed; Part II will include a detailed presentation of our new measure. Note that the data discussed below are limited to those players who have accumulated 2000 or more runs, roughly 50 matches for a top-flight player. The data are current to match #2086, played on 22 January 2004 between India and Australia in the VB Series.
A. Batting Average
This is the most accessible of all measures, although as noted above, it suffers from the impact of Not-outs.. Assuming that no more than five players in a given team would likely compete for top honors within the squad, and knowing that two of these are almost certainly the openers, we would expect 40% of the top-ranked players to be openers. However, as we see from the table below (Top 20 batsman, by Batting Average), the rankings are loaded in favour of non-openers, and the likelihood of remaining not-out (not-outs/innings; see under the 'Not out Percentage' column shown as 'NO-%') is typically much higher for the middle order players. Bevan, Kluesener and Martyn have very high Not Out % figures.
Top Batsmen - By Average
Michael Bevan's pre-eminence in this table is certainly in part due to the not-outs against his name, but it must be understood that even with a more average not out rate, say 15-16% amounting to 37 not-outs, his average would be around 44, still good enough to appear in this list.
B. Runs Per Innings
This measure negates the Not-Out factor; it is determined by dividing the number of runs scored by the number of innings played. As noted earlier, this weighs slightly against the middle order batsmen who might not have the time to play longer innings, but it is nonethelesss a useful indication of a batsman's effectiveness. The current Top 25 list by this measure is as follows:.
Top Batsmen - By RPI
The negation of the not-outs is clearly evident in this list. More than half the top slots are held by openers. But the downside - that lower order batsman have less opportunity for accumulation - is also plainly seen. Not a single player on this list has had much playing time at #5 or lower. It is testimony to Michael Bevan's success at this form of the game that he ranks high enough to be in this list, despite this handicap.
C. Strike Rate
This statistic is made available nowadays quite frequently. For many older matches, however, the number of balls faced by batsmen was not routinely recorded, and this makes comparisons less direct. Using a number of analysis techniques, however, it has been possible to make good estimates of 'balls faced' for scoreboards that do not contain such data. These techniques can be verified using more recent scoreboards for which detailed data are available. With such corrections made, the current top 25 batsman are as follows:
Top Batsmen - By Strike Rate
As we would expect, this list is dominated by great attacking batsmen. Also, with the definite turn of the game towards explosive starts following Sri Lanka's famous World Cup campaign in 1996, openers from more recent times who can attack the bowling right from the first over are found in abundance in this list.
D. Contributing Average
There is a striking element to these measures, when each of them is examined individually. In the first two cases, we were able to predict the batting positions of players who should be on each list; the first had a disproportionate number of lower-order bats and the second was dominated by openers. Our third list - of fast scoring batsmen - is a less predictable one, but this one too is problematic. It treats those with small and large career totals alike, counting only the speed at which their runs were made. Such an assessment is clearly unfair to players who have maintained their striking power over long careers.
This completes our discussion of the current measures. In the second part of this article, we present our new measure - the "Contributing Average" that attempts to overcome the disadvantages discussed here in each of these lists.
Y. Anantha Narayanan & Ashwin Mahesh
Part II:
The ODI Contributing Batting Average
A new perspective on batting combines different measures of a player's worth into a
single index.
Part II:
The Contributing Average
How good is your favourite ODI batsman? While a number of different measures of a batsman's worth have been devised, there are also problems with each of them.
SNo Batsman Ctry Mat Inns NO Runs HS NO-% Avge
1 Bevan M.G Aus 226 189 66 6700 108 34.9 54.47
2 Zaheer Abbas Pak 62 60 6 2572 123 10.0 47.63
3 Richards I.V.A Win 187 167 24 6721 189 14.4 47.00
4 Tendulkar S.R Ind 324 315 31 12878 186 9.8 45.35
5 Greenidge C.G Win 128 127 13 5134 133 10.2 45.04
6 Kallis J.H Saf 185 176 31 6497 125 17.6 44.81
7 Jones D.M Aus 164 161 25 6068 145 15.5 44.62
8 Dippenaar H.H Saf 67 56 9 2066 110 16.1 43.96
9 Klusener L Saf 154 124 46 3381 103 37.1 43.35
10 Ganguly S.C Ind 240 232 20 9133 183 8.6 43.08
11 Yousuf Youhana Pak 158 150 23 5449 141 15.3 42.91
12 Lara B.C Win 225 220 23 8443 169 10.5 42.86
13 Hayden M.L Aus 85 81 11 2959 146 13.6 42.27
14 Ponting R.T Aus 191 187 26 6763 145 13.9 42.01
15 Martyn D.R Aus 138 118 38 3346 144 32.2 41.83
16 Javed Miandad Pak 233 218 41 7381 119 18.8 41.70
17 Haynes D.L Win 238 237 28 8648 152 11.8 41.38
18 Kirsten G Saf 185 185 19 6798 188 10.3 40.95
19 Knight N.V Eng 100 100 10 3636 125 10.0 40.40
20 Chappell G.S Aus 74 72 14 2331 138 19.4 40.19
21 Gayle C.H Win 84 82 3 3160 153 3.7 40.00
22 Marsh G.R Aus 117 115 6 4357 126 5.2 39.97
23 Dravid R Ind 219 200 25 6912 153 12.5 39.50
24 Fairbrother N.H Eng 75 71 18 2092 113 25.4 39.47
25 Waugh M.E Aus 244 236 20 8500 173 8.5 39.35
SNo Batsman Ctry Mat Inns NOs Runs RPI
1 Zaheer Abbas Pak 62 60 6 2572 42.87
2 Tendulkar S.R Ind 324 315 31 12878 40.88
3 Greenidge C.G Win 128 127 13 5134 40.43
4 Richards I.V.A Win 187 167 24 6721 40.25
5 Ganguly S.C Ind 240 232 20 9133 39.37
6 Gayle C.H Win 84 82 3 3160 38.54
7 Lara B.C Win 225 220 23 8443 38.38
8 Marsh G.R Aus 117 115 6 4357 37.89
9 Jones D.M Aus 164 161 25 6068 37.69
10 Kallis J.H Saf 185 176 31 6497 36.91
11 Dippenaar H.H Saf 67 56 9 2066 36.89
12 Kirsten G Saf 185 185 19 6798 36.75
13 Hayden M.L Aus 85 81 11 2959 36.53
14 Haynes D.L Win 238 237 28 8648 36.49
15 Knight N.V Eng 100 100 10 3636 36.36
16 Yousuf Youhana Pak 158 150 23 5449 36.33
17 Ponting R.T Aus 191 187 26 6763 36.17
18 Saeed Anwar Pak 247 244 19 8823 36.16
19 Waugh M.E Aus 244 236 20 8500 36.02
20 Trescothick M.E Eng 75 75 3 2700 36.00
21 Bevan M.G Aus 226 189 66 6700 35.45
22 Gooch G.A Eng 125 122 6 4290 35.16
23 Gilchrist A.C Aus 183 177 6 6165 34.83
24 Sidhu N.S Ind 136 127 8 4414 34.76
25 Smith R.A Eng 71 70 8 2419 34.56
SNo Batsman Ctry Mat Runs Balls S/R
1 Shahid Afridi Pak 176 3887 3825 101.62
2 Sehwag V Ind 81 2585 2725 94.86
3 Gilchrist A.C Aus 183 6165 6575 93.76
4 Kapil Dev N Ind 225 3783 4146 91.24
5 Klusener L Saf 154 3381 3731 90.62
6 Jayasuriya S.T Slk 307 9166 10309 88.91
7 Richards I.V.A Win 187 6721 7581 88.66
8 Wasim Akram Pak 356 3717 4224 88.00
9 Tendulkar S.R Ind 324 12878 14869 86.61
10 Trescothick M.E Eng 75 2700 3136 86.10
11 Cairns C.L Nzl 180 4272 5181 82.46
12 Gibbs H.H Saf 138 4522 5506 82.13
13 Lehmann D.S Aus 100 2714 3311 81.97
14 Moin Khan Pak 200 3061 3765 81.30
15 Rhodes J.N Saf 245 5935 7310 81.19
16 de Silva P.A Slk 308 9284 11497 80.75
17 Saeed Anwar Pak 247 8823 10931 80.72
18 Martyn D.R Aus 138 3346 4181 80.03
19 Ijaz Ahmed Pak 250 6566 8203 80.04
20 Zaheer Abbas Pak 62 2572 3216 79.98
21 Lara B.C Win 225 8443 10641 79.34
22 Gayle C.H Win 84 3160 3991 79.18
23 Abdur Razzaq Pak 153 2952 3799 77.70
24 Kaluwitharana R.S Slk 186 3708 4769 77.75
25 Boucher M.V Saf 160 2062 2655 77.66
January 2004.
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